The Rudd Ascension

A new Labor leader requires at least one entry, so here it is.

I think Kim Beazley to be a nice enough guy and it is sad to see him ‘put out to pasture’ as one commentator put it. But having said that, I’d stopped listening to him, which for someone who identifies largely with the centre-left in politics, isn’t good. He wasn’t going to be PM so he needed to go. I do however think he’ll be a great US Ambassador when the ALP next win government.

Kevin Rudd is, despite his nerdishness, a little bit exciting. He has a bit of Bob Carr about him – book smart, politically smart, yet could very easily, if things fall his way, be held in high regard by Joe and Jane Average. Time will tell on that.

He’s exciting because he’s talking about real issues. Things like the future of federalism. No one’s talked this seriously about reforming federalism since Gough Whitlam made a suggestion to abolish the states. Federalism is a great means of providing a seperation of powers and checks and balances, but it’s evolved into a hybrid of duplification and blame-shifting. Whilst this issue won’t win an election, it will get the academics and big-picturists on side, which never hurts.

His recent line of “If John Howard really cared about families he wouldn’t pass workplace laws that remove certainty and make it hard for them to plan time together” is a killer. If he repeats this often enough to the right people, he’ll do well.

The real test, however, is in the mortage belt. An often forgotten fact is that when Labor left office in March 1996, household debt was around 80% of combined household income. Now, it’s somewhere around 125% (give or take a few points). This is a huge debt ceiling that will one day bear down on people like the Earth on Atlas. If Rudd can keep his “long-termism” thing going and bring this into people’s minds, they will eventually turn from Howard with every interest rate rise (and there will be more next year).

I’m excited about what Rudd might do, but I was also excited about what Mark Latham might have done. They are very different, but there will be some resistance to Rudd because of the Latham experience.

If he can keep people listening and even thinking, he’ll win in 2007. If not, I just hope the party gives him another run in 2010, as he’s too young to burn and waste.